Research
Notes, papers, and interactive explorations.
Four curves, one commodity — Kalshi's implied compute curve, and the race to price the GPU term structure
Kalshi launched compute forward curves on July 14 — binary event ladders settling on Ornn prints, the first executable forward pricing in the complex. That makes four venues (Kalshi, Architect, CME × Silicon Data, ICE × Ornn) on three curve technologies and two settlement philosophies — and three of the four settle Ornn. Launch-day implied forwards from the actual strike ladders (H100 ≈ $2.52, B200 ≥ $7.00, with the monthly ladder internally inconsistent), an eight-entry arbitrage monitor, the decay-vs-scarcity tenor model, and the power-market link. Interactive five-view curve comparator inline.
ReadSingle-stock futures vs. the swap desk — a balanced threat assessment for the $34.5B prime & financing franchise
CME lists the first US security futures since OneChicago on July 27. Anchored on the leveraged single-stock ETF swap tape (T-Rex/Tuttle and Defiance MSTR funds paying OBFR +13-17% to Cantor, Marex, and Clear Street), the PB portfolio-margin math, and the index-TRF precedent that already ran to completion. Includes the no-arbitrage rebuttal to "lower margin, no debit rate on shorts": the borrow fee is netted into the futures entry price, matched to the dollar in a step-by-step walkthrough. Threat map, moats ranked by durability, interactive 4-tool dashboard, two PDFs.
ReadOffshore perpetual futures — margin, liquidation, and the October 10 stress test
$19B liquidated in hours, 1.62M accounts, 87% longs. Side-by-side comparison of Binance, Bybit, OKX, Hyperliquid, dYdX, Coinbase Derivatives, and Deribit across 18 dimensions of margin methodology, liquidation policy, and perp design — anchored on the Oct 10, 2025 cascade that exposed how each design actually performs under stress.
ReadLitigation outcomes as predictive contracts — a phased listing plan and a perpetual on the index
$79B in top-10 US class action settlements in 2025, a $19.4B litigation finance market, and $300B+ in pharma patent cliff exposure through 2030. A four-phase listing plan, 16 candidate cases with $1T+ aggregate exposure, a perpetual-on-index design with cash-carry funding, and why the Kalshi precedents clear most of the regulatory path. Interactive case explorer + downloadable PDF.
ReadA Gold/Silver Ratio Perpetual — contract design, funding mechanics, and the cost-benefit case
A proposed CFTC-regulated perpetual on COMEX GC/SI VWAP with cash-carry-anchored funding. Arbitrage triangle against two-leg cleared and ETF pairs, bid-ask and margin economics, full index methodology, and an interactive sizing dashboard.
ReadThe Compute Complex — congealed electricity, the index dispersion, and the pre-listing trade
CME × Silicon Data and ICE × Ornn filed compute futures in May 2026 on structurally different indices. A six-level hierarchy (benchmark / grade / region / firmness / tenor / venue+credit), the four legs of the SD-vs-OCPI dispersion (the first listed-market trade), and how the compute supply curve is sitting in public interconnection queues pricing PJM and ERCOT basis 12-36 months ahead. Interactive dispersion dashboard inline.
ReadPredictive market ETFs: what's filed, how the swaps work, and two concepts the market hasn't priced
Three sponsors (Roundhill, Bitwise, GraniteShares) filed 24 prediction-market ETFs; SEC paused them May 5. A walkthrough of the TRS plumbing that makes a 1940 Act fund possible on a CFTC event contract, the binary return profile, plus two unbuilt structural concepts — predictive signal ETFs (trading traditional assets on prediction-market info) and overlay products (hedge + return enhancement) — with an interactive sizing dashboard.
ReadPerps come onshore: what the CFTC's May 29 approvals change about contract design
The CFTC just approved Kalshi's BTCPERP as the first US-regulated perpetual, issued a policy statement on the listing of perps, and cleared a Coinbase pathway to Deribit. A walk through what a perp actually is, what knobs designers turn, and how the offshore (Hyperliquid HIP-3) and the onshore (Kalshi DCM) paradigms compare — with an interactive caps/floors dashboard.
Read