Modelled figures — the implied forward curve, the convenience-yield decomposition, and the factor loadings — are computed from the stated assumptions and are illustrative of structure, not forecasts. Kalshi’s compute contracts are described as resolving to Ornn’s Compute Price Index per both parties’ public materials; contract-level rulebook language was not independently reviewed. IOSCO assessments reflect publicly available methodology documents and press releases as of July 27, 2026. Market-design commentary, not legal advice or a compliance opinion. Reproduce the computed figures with scripts/corporate-event-hierarchy/model2.py.