Three views. Path tree visualizes the stage-conditional cascade for any team — drag any node to adjust the probability, and watch the implied outright at the end of the cascade update in real time. Outright arbitrage ranks every team by the dispersion between its market outright and the milestone-basket-implied outright, with fee-aware filtering and cross-milestone consistency checks. Stage milestones picks any single stage (make R16, QF, SF, F) and ranks teams by the dispersion at that stage.

Bookies and prediction markets price each team's path through the tournament as five independent contracts plus an outright. In theory those six prints are tightly linked:

• P(make R16) = P(make R32) × P(advance from R32)
• P(make QF) = P(make R16) × P(advance from R16)
• … and so on, down to P(win WC) = P(make F) × P(advance from F).

That gives us a clean decomposition: divide each successive milestone by the prior, and the result is the team's market-implied probability of winning that round given they reached it. The dashboard's path tree shows those five conditional probabilities as a horizontal cascade — group survival, R32, R16, QF, SF, F.

With the cascade in hand, two arbitrage classes emerge:

• Outright vs basket. The market outright should equal the product of all five conditionals (times the group-survival probability). When it doesn't, sell the rich side and buy the cheap one. England's outright in the sample data is deliberately set rich; you'll see it surface near the top of the ranked table.
• Cross-milestone consistency. The milestones must be monotonically non-increasing — P(make R16) ≤ P(make R32), and so on. If any later stage prices higher than an earlier one, you can buy the cheaper later stage and sell the richer earlier stage with zero remaining risk. The dashboard flags violations explicitly (Croatia's sample data has one).

Prediction-market mispricings between outright and milestone baskets are not random — they come from three structural drivers:

• Audience attention asymmetry. Outright markets attract retail flow that thinks in terms of who wins, not who advances. Milestone markets attract narrower audiences (often Asia-driven for matchup-specific markets) and tend to be price-anchored on bookmaker prints, which themselves drift from true probability. The retail-driven outright tends to over-price favorites; the bookie-anchored milestones tend to be tighter to the path math.
• Path-dependence in the bracket. Teams in "easy" sides of the bracket carry path-probability premium that the outright market often under-discounts. The cascade view makes this explicit — adjust the R16 or QF conditional based on what you know about the opponent and watch the implied outright move.
• Information lag. Live tournament conditions (injuries, form, weather, fixture congestion) hit milestone markets first because milestone traders are tracking individual matches. The outright lags by a few hours during major news. That's a tactical arb window between announcement and outright re-mark.

The dashboard ships with sample market prints calibrated to mid-2026 ballpark levels. The feed toggle in the top-right exposes hooks for Kalshi and Polymarket (both list World Cup outrights and milestone markets); those go live as the kineticalpha.com feed handlers are wired in. The decomposition math is the same regardless of feed source — the dashboard just substitutes the market prices and recomputes the cascade.

For now, the sample data is constructed with three intentional dispersions so the mechanic is visible:

• England outright is rich. The milestone basket multiplies to roughly 7.5%; the market outright prints 9.5%. Dispersion is ~200 bps — easily tradeable at sub-100 bps fees. Direction: sell outright, buy milestone path.
• Netherlands outright is cheap. Milestone basket implies ~3.5%; market outright prints 3.0%. Direction: buy outright, sell milestone path.
• Croatia's milestones are inconsistent. P(make QF) prints higher than P(make R16), which is impossible — the dashboard flags this as a cross-milestone arb. Buy the QF milestone, sell the R16 milestone, zero net risk if the dispersion holds to settlement.

• Not a settlement-grade pricing engine. The decomposition assumes the milestone markets and outright settle on identical resolution criteria; in practice a few platforms have nuanced rules (third-place playoff handling, forfeits, abandonment) that can decouple the cascade. Read each platform's resolution rules before sizing.
• Liquidity is not modeled. The arb table assumes you can hit the displayed market price for any size. Real prediction-market depth is shallow relative to outright AUM; expect slippage on size, especially in the middle-stage milestone markets where book depth is thinnest.
• Fee model is per-side. The fee slider applies a single round-trip fee in bps of notional. For Kalshi-style maker/taker structures and Polymarket's gas/swap costs, you'll want to apply the per-platform fee schedule specifically.